MLB Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday August 12 (2024)

MLB Best Bets Today August 12:

A new week gets underway with 11 games, as one interleague game between the Cubs and Guardians serves as the only outlier from intraleague action. Five games in the NL and five games in the AL are on the slate, with only a couple of extreme favorites on the betting board. Most teams have a little over 40 games left, so for those in the playoff mix, these are all important days from here on out.

Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.

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Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (-125, 9.5)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Rangers and Red Sox fire up a series at Fenway Park with Tyler Mahle and Brayan Bello as the listed starters. Boston has really been struggling and will turn to Bello, who is coming off of the paternity list to make this start. Mahle is making just his second start of the season after missing more than 15 months with Tommy John surgery.

Let’s start with Mahle, who went five innings against the surging Astros six days ago and allowed one run on five hits. He only struck out two, but Mahle had a 34.3% O-Swing% and an 85.7% F-Strike%, so he got ahead in the count and did well to get the Astros to expand the zone. For his first MLB start in so long against a disciplined offensive bunch, it was an encouraging outing. Mahle yielded a 38.9% Hard Hit% and just one Barrel out of 18 batted balls.

Bello comes in with a 5.16 ERA and a 4.61 FIP on the season. His 3.74 xFIP suggests some positive regression, but I’m not buying it. For a ground ball guy, the fact that Bello has allowed 18 HR speaks to some really shoddy command. He’s just under a strikeout per inning, but he’s allowed a .325 BABIP and a 20% HR/FB% because of his lack of command. He’s also allowed a 43% Hard Hit%.

This is Bello’s second straight season with a paternity list stint and one that required travel, as he was said to be flying back into Boston on Sunday. He’s allowed 11 runs on 22 hits in 22 innings in four starts since the All-Star Break. I also feel like manager Alex Cora may ask for too much from Bello here. Red Sox long and middle relievers threw 266 pitches this weekend and that doesn’t even take into account the 74 from Brad Keller.

In the second half, the Red Sox pen has a 7.07 ERA with a 5.92 FIP in 85.1 innings, so they’ve struggled. So have many of the starters. Mahle had that good first start and allowed five runs on 11 hits in 18 innings over six rehab appearances. Plus, Boston is really pressing right now.

Pick: Rangers +105

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-198, 8)

9:40 p.m. ET

There is a lot to unpack with this game, as former Pirate Joe Musgrove makes his return to the big leagues to face his old team. Marco Gonzales has not yet officially been named the starter for the Pirates tonight, but it would be a tad tricky to go with an opener after five relievers were needed yesterday and closer David Bednar threw 38 pitches. Plus, Domingo German is one of the other relievers and he threw 75 pitches on Friday. This could be something of a Jake Woodford/Gonzales tandem.

Musgrove is only expected to throw 60 pitches or so after coming up shy of 50 in his lone rehab start, but that isn’t really the whole part of the story for me. The San Diego Union Tribune wrote about Musgrove’s return and the cliff notes version here is that he’s dealing with bone spurs in his elbow that will need to be removed after the season. In the meantime, he’s overhauled his mechanics in hopes of lessening the pain and strain. It is entirely possible that this works out for him, but I’m not exactly encouraged to hear that.

He allowed two runs on four hits and hit a batter in his Single-A rehab start back on August 4. He only struck out two batters. Again, I can’t say I’m very encouraged.

Gonzales has a 4.54 ERA with a 6.75 xERA and a 4.72 FIP in 33.2 innings and hasn’t really been an effective pitcher since the COVID-shortened 2020 year. He just faced the Padres and allowed five runs on eight hits in just 4.2 innings. He’s allowed four homers and nine runs on 15 hits over his last seven innings.

For argument’s sake, in case the Pirates don’t start Gonzales, Woodford has allowed 17 runs on 21 hits in 17 innings this season. He had a 6.23 ERA with a 7.04 xERA and a 6.61 FIP last year. He’s not a very good pitcher either. As a result, I’m okay with going “Action” here instead of insisting on the listed pitchers.

The full-game Over 8 (or 8.5 if it gets there) is probably fine here as well, as the Padres pen has had a massive workload over the last six days. Even though I love their collection of relievers, these dudes have worked a lot. And the Pirates pen stinks.

Pick: Pirates/Padres 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-115)

MLB Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday August 12 (2024)

FAQs

How often do Favourites win in MLB? ›

Especially for novice bettors, it may be tempting to bet on the favorites because they do win more often than not (roughly 65% of the time, according to various baseball research services). However, oddsmakers know that bettors like to bet on favorites, and they set the odds accordingly.

What is the over and under bet in MLB? ›

Over/under

Also known as Totals, over/unders are one of the more common bets in baseball.. For example, if the over/under of the Mets vs. Blue Jays game is set at 8.5, that means the teams would have to score a combined nine runs or more to be considered over. Eight or less and the under bettors are winners.

How do the odds work in MLB? ›

Positive Odds: If a team has positive odds, such as +150, it means that a $100 bet on that team would result in a potential profit of $150. The higher the positive number, the greater the potential payout. Negative Odds: If a team has negative odds, such as -200, it indicates the amount you need to bet to win $100.

What is the total runs bet in MLB? ›

MLB over/under is also referred to as MLB Total betting, which is the combined number of runs scored in a game by both teams. That total will either be over or under the line set by the sportsbooks and most totals end in . 5 (8.5, 10.5, etc). It always ensures a winner and loser.

How often does the Moneyline Favorite win? ›

Yes, betting the NFL moneyline can be profitable if you properly research your bets and carefully manage your money. How often does the moneyline favorite win in the NFL? Since 1985, NFL moneyline favorites have won 66.5 percent of the time.

How to bet on baseball like a pro? ›

MLB Betting Tips and Strategies
  1. Use Plus-Money Underdogs to Your Advantage. MLB betting on plus-money underdogs – for example, a team with odds of +140 rather than the favorites – is usually a more profitable but riskier strategy. ...
  2. Avoid Popular MLB Picks. ...
  3. Go Against the Field. ...
  4. Keep Track of the Weather. ...
  5. Consider the Umpires.
Jan 16, 2024

What percentage of underdogs win in baseball? ›

Over the last 10 years, underdogs in the month of April have gone 1,487-1,866. While that comes out to a mere 44.43% win rate, the average odds in these games is +131.3, which turns into an ROI (return on investment) of +1.0% and profit of $3,114 on a simple $100 wager.

Is it profitable to bet on baseball? ›

One of the biggest keys to being a successful long-term MLB bettor is remaining disciplined and limiting your plays to the most valuable games of the day. However, baseball is one of the few sports where volume sports betting leads to increased profits.

What does +200 mean for odds? ›

In American sports betting, odds are typically expressed with a plus (+) or minus (–) symbol followed by a number. For example, +200 signifies the amount a bettor could win if wagering $100. If the bet works out, the player would receive a total payout of $300 ($200 profit + $100 initial stake).

What is the best bet type for MLB? ›

The main three ways to bet on an MLB match is through the Money Line, Spreads and Totals markets. In Baseball, the spread is known as the Run Line, meaning the favorite will have to concede runs, usually -1.5 and the underdog will gain runs usually +1.5.

Is MLB hard to bet? ›

It's not uncommon for a team to play on 10 straight days, or league-wide for there to be 15 total games on the slate multiple days in a row. The plethora of games on a daily basis can make betting on baseball even more difficult, with hundreds (if not thousands) of betting options available every single day. .

What inning on average has the most runs? ›

That is: The first inning has always been the highest-scoring inning, because the best hitters get to bat.

What percentage of favorites win? ›

The favourite usually wins a horse racing around 30-35% of the time. And if you were wondering, the second favourite usually wins around 18-21% of the time. As you might expect, going down the market leads to a lower winning percentage.

How many times do favorites win? ›

Favorites win about 35% of the time. They are second or third another 30% of the time. The other 30–35% are outright losses. Even when you win you can't stay on top of the losses.

How often do odds on Favourites lose? ›

As you can see when a horse is odds on the favourite does win more often but still loses around 40% of the time. To recap you have 65% of horse racing favourites losing and 40% of odds on horse racing favourites losing. Once you have a betting exchange account you can start trying to make money by laying favourites.

How often does the favorite win place or show? ›

In much the same way, you can explain odds to a new bettor, but you can't tell them how to wager their money. Even longtime racing fanatics will tell you opinions are split when it comes to choosing a champion. Some stick to the favorites, which generally win around 35% of the time [2].

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