The last time Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro headlined a ballot, he and many of his fellow Democrats had a post-election celebration.
Shapiro's 2022 gubernatorial run culminated with his comfortable victory and ascent from attorney general's office to the governor's mansion. His political party, meanwhile, flipped a U.S. Senate seat and reclaimed control of the state House of Representatives for the first time in more than a decade.
Penn State Behrend associate professor Robert Speel said that while Shapiro as running mate to Vice President Kamala Harris wouldn't have guaranteed a "blue wave" repeat in the commonwealth this year, it might have turned the odds against Republicans in at least some of the down-ballot races.
"Shapiro being on the ticket perhaps could have given all the Democrats a slight boost," said Speel, who specializes in political science and serves as director of the campus Public Policy Initiative. "His popularity in polls in Pennsylvania have been consistently high."
Though Shapiro was vetted and considered a finalist, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was instead named Harris' running mate last week.
"The Democrats are hoping to win enough seats to take over a state Senate majority in November," Speel said. "Shapiro probably would have given Democrats in the southeast part of the state a little bit of a boost if he was on the ticket."
Even without the once-hypothesized Harris-Shapiro ticket, Democratic strategist Britt Crampsie told the USA TODAY Network she likes her party's odds in the commonwealth this November.
"The Democratic platform and energy right now is joyful," Crampsie said. "We have good ideas ... and the tone is very different than what we're seeing out of the (Donald) Trump campaign."
There are tangible roads to victory for Democrats across the board, according to Crampsie, who has worked with both row office and legislative candidates.
Among their goals is a Democratic "trifecta" in Harrisburg. Democrats hold the governor's office via Shapiro, have a narrow advantage in the House and would need to net just three seats in the Senate to gain firm control of Pennsylvania's lawmaking process.
"Shapiro's done a lot with what he's got, but to have the Legislature really, really changes things," Crampsie said.
She noted that Democrats have steadily eroded the GOP's state Senate majority, gaining six seats since 2018. Flipping this chamber blue could produce a host of changes in Pennsylvania: increased minimum wage, legalized recreational marijuana and new gun control laws, among others.
"I think the dam breaks on progress," Crampsie said.
The federal races in Pennsylvania may also prove pivotal. There are several competitive seats in the state that could change the balance of power in Washington, D.C., where Democrats control the Senate and Republicans have a House majority.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Aidan Johnson said he doesn't think Shapiro would have made much of a difference.
"Our frontliners and Democratic challengers will win this November because they have built independent, common-sense campaigns, while their opponents just mimic pundits on Fox News," Johnson said in a statement to the USA TODAY Network. "The key to success in these down ballot races has always been candidate quality, not who is at the top of the ticket."
On the other side of the campaign trail, Republicans also downplayed Shapiro's potential to impact the down-ballot races.
According to Michael Straw, communications director for the Senate Republican Campaign Committee in Pennsylvania, Shapiro wouldn't have changed the election calculus at all. He said down-ballot Democrats will have trouble distancing themselves from their party's reputation for handling problems such as inflation and illegal immigration.
"At the end of the day, the Democratic opponents running against us in the state Senate don't have a record that I'd want to run on," Straw said.
To others, a Shapiro-less ticket could be a blessing in disguise for Pennsylvania Democrats. Chatham University associate professor Jennie Sweet-Cushman said the governor's emergence under the national spotlight had the potential to backfire on his party.
"People are just really turned off by American politics, and I don't think it takes much," she said.
A positive for down-ballot Democrats would have been an influx of campaign resources. Sweet-Cushman noted that Shapiro could also be a strong spokesman for his party in general, as he's a proven and articulate public speaker.
"I would not be discouraged by him taking on JD Vance in a vice presidential debate or in the media," she said.
The concern of Shapiro on the Harris ticket, according to Sweet-Cushman, was that his "chinks in the armor" were starting to receive more attention. Leftists within his party could have been discouraged by his vocal support of school choice and his pro-Israel comments regarding the war in Gaza.
Among general voters, scrutiny over his handling of a prolonged 2011 death investigation and an aide's sexual harassment scandal are potentially harmful to future political prospects.
Family members and advocates for Ellen Greenberg, whose death was labeled a suicide by a Philadelphia medical examiner, have been critical of Shapiro's handling of the case. His office recused itself in 2022 over the "appearance of a conflict" of interest in the investigation, which has included evidence that at least some of Greenberg's stab wounds occurred after she died.
Numerous Republicans in the Legislature have similarly reignited the outcry over former Shapiro budget negotiator Mike Vereb, who resigned last year after a subordinate filed a complaint accusing Vereb of blatant and persistent sexual harassment.
Sweet-Cushman noted that some of Shapiro's political liabilities didn't exist when he ran for governor in 2022. Others weren't effectively exploited by his opponent, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin, who was underfunded and barely campaigned outside of far-right circles.
"If we bring a lot of negative attention to the VP candidate and sitting governor of Pennsylvania, that negativity could turn off voters in general or independent or swing voters for Democrats," Sweet-Cushman said.
Bruce Siwy is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network's Pennsylvania state capital bureau. He can be reached at bsiwy@gannett.com or on X at @BruceSiwy.
